Pakistan poised for surge in defence spending over next 2–4 years amid rising India tensions

 With tensions between India and Pakistan on the rise, defence spending in the region is expected to accelerate, fueling a renewed arms race. A Moneycontrol analysis reveals that while India’s reactions tend to be measured, Pakistan historically ramps up its military expenditures sharply after each major incident — a trend that typically lasts two to four years.

According to World Bank data, Pakistan’s annual defence spending growth had slowed to single digits by 2016. However, after India’s Uri surgical strikes in 2016, Pakistan’s military spending surged, doubling to 14.1% in 2017. The following year, 2018, saw an even sharper rise of 17.5% — marking the highest annual jump in seven years.

Looking further back, after the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, Pakistan’s defence budget swelled significantly, rising from 13.4% growth in 2008 to 17.1% in 2009. Over the next four years, Pakistan maintained an average annual increase of 17.4% in military spending.

A similar pattern emerged during the early 2000s, when tensions spiked following unrest in Kashmir and the 2001 Indian Parliament attack. Between 2000 and 2004, Pakistan’s defence spending grew at an average annual rate of 11.4%, nearly doubling the 6.6% growth seen in the preceding five years.

Overall, historical data suggests that each bout of heightened India-Pakistan tensions triggers a distinct and measurable surge in Pakistan’s defence expenditures, a pattern likely to continue in the coming years.